2022年(nian)機(ji)遇與挑(tiao)戰并存(cun)

 2021，純堿的產(chan)量和價(jia)格(ge)同(tong)時上漲(zhang)。2022年(nian)，純堿產(chan)能將(jiang)(jiang)下降，庫存(cun)將(jiang)(jiang)高(gao)，潛在需求將(jiang)(jiang)增加(jia)，供需博弈將(jiang)(jiang)更加(jia)激(ji)烈。2022年(nian)純堿市場機遇與挑戰并存(cun)

根據2017-2021純(chun)(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)統(tong)計(ji)圖，下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)穩步增(zeng)長(chang)，部分(fen)行業(ye)增(zeng)速較(jiao)快(kuai)，復合年增(zeng)長(chang)率為3.32%。對于(yu)純(chun)(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)，下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)分(fen)為輕(qing)純(chun)(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)和(he)重(zhong)純(chun)(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)，輕(qing)質(zhi)純(chun)(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)相對飽和(he)，年變化較(jiao)小，對純(chun)(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)的需(xu)求相對穩定。重(zhong)質(zhi)純(chun)(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)性(xing)能(neng)提升(sheng)主(zhu)(zhu)要體現(xian)(xian)在(zai)浮法玻璃和(he)光伏(fu)玻璃行業(ye)。據隆(long)中(zhong)(zhong)信息統(tong)計(ji)，2017年純(chun)(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)量(liang)為2539萬噸。2018年消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)量(liang)為2503萬噸，同比呈下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降趨(qu)勢(shi)。一些下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)產(chan)業(ye)受到環境保護的影響，其(qi)設備被關閉或減少(shao)。2019年和(he)2020年，消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)量(liang)為2645萬噸，保持(chi)穩定狀態。2020年受疫(yi)情影響，上半(ban)年表現(xian)(xian)疲(pi)弱，下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)半(ban)年基本恢復正常。此外(wai)，純(chun)(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)價格較(jiao)低(di)，下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)購買心態積(ji)極(ji)。2021，純(chun)(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)需(xu)求呈上升(sheng)趨(qu)勢(shi)，需(xu)求主(zhu)(zhu)要集中(zhong)(zhong)在(zai)光伏(fu)和(he)浮子。2022年，純(chun)(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)市場仍然值得期(qi)待，整(zheng)體需(xu)求預計(ji)將保持(chi)上升(sheng)趨(qu)勢(shi)。需(xu)求的增(zeng)加主(zhu)(zhu)要體現(xian)(xian)在(zai)光伏(fu)發電的潛在(zai)增(zeng)長(chang)。此外(wai)，個別輕(qing)工業(ye)有小幅增(zeng)長(chang)

據(ju)(ju)隆中數據(ju)(ju)監測，截至2022年3月(yue)10日(ri)(ri)(ri)，剔(ti)除僵尸生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)線(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)后(hou)，國內(nei)有297條玻(bo)璃(li)(li)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)線(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（5887.05萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)/年），其中在產(chan)259條，冷(leng)修(xiu)停產(chan)38條，浮法(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)(li)企業(ye)(ye)開(kai)工率為(wei)87.21%，容量利(li)用(yong)率為(wei)86.92%。國內(nei)浮法(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)(li)日(ri)(ri)(ri)熔(rong)煉量17.06萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)玻(bo)璃(li)(li)日(ri)(ri)(ri)熔(rong)煉量44980噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)/天。根(gen)據(ju)(ju)企業(ye)(ye)目(mu)前(qian)的投(tou)產(chan)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)，有9條潛在的浮法(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)(li)新(xin)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)線(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，總產(chan)能(neng)6880噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)，12條潛在的復工生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)線(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，產(chan)能(neng)8700噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)，9條計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)的冷(leng)修(xiu)復生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)線(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，產(chan)能(neng)5700噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)，凈增加9880噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)。生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)線(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的具(ju)體更換時(shi)(shi)(shi)間(jian)由市(shi)場(chang)決定(ding)。此外(wai)，部分生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)線(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)已(yi)達到冷(leng)修(xiu)時(shi)(shi)(shi)限，但暫時(shi)(shi)(shi)沒(mei)有維修(xiu)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)。在利(li)潤(run)支(zhi)持下，排水時(shi)(shi)(shi)間(jian)不斷推遲，或已(yi)進(jin)行過(guo)熱維修(xiu)。在后(hou)期(qi)，如(ru)果利(li)潤(run)持續較低(di)甚至虧損，或窯爐狀(zhuang)況不佳，則可能(neng)會將(jiang)水排干。除浮法(fa)外(wai)，2022年光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)玻(bo)璃(li)(li)的潛在需求(qiu)(qiu)值得期(qi)待。據(ju)(ju)統計(ji)，該項目(mu)已(yi)于(yu)2022年開(kai)工建設，計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)新(xin)增日(ri)(ri)(ri)總產(chan)能(neng)約5.6萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。部分企業(ye)(ye)投(tou)產(chan)時(shi)(shi)(shi)間(jian)尚未(wei)確定(ding)。考慮到目(mu)前(qian)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)行業(ye)(ye)的一般市(shi)場(chang)、低(di)利(li)潤(run)和高原材料，對(dui)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)線(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的推出有一定(ding)的限制。考慮到各種因素，預計(ji)2022年的投(tou)資將(jiang)在30-40%左右(you)。從光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)角度來看(kan)，純(chun)堿企業(ye)(ye)保持高庫存，對(dui)純(chun)堿走勢(shi)保持樂觀，這也是基(ji)于(yu)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)的潛在需求(qiu)(qiu)，支(zhi)撐純(chun)堿價格。光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)的推出進(jin)度與純(chun)堿的需求(qiu)(qiu)增長率和純(chun)堿的供需格局有關。